EDUCATION · 29 September 2026 · 4 min read
Binary Options Payout Percentages Explained: Break-Even Win Rate, Expected Value and Why 95% Isn't the Whole Story
The maths behind binary options payouts, in plain language: how a 90% payout turns into a 52.6% break-even win rate, how to work out expected value per trade, how Bynix account-level bonuses shift the numbers, and how to pick markets and expiries by payout — with a ready-made table.
Every binary trade shows a payout percentage before you enter — 85%, 90%, 95%. Most traders read it as "how much I win". The more useful reading is "how often I have to win". This guide gives you the three numbers that turn a payout into a decision, and a table you can keep next to the chart.
Number 1 — break-even win rate
If you stake $10 at a 90% payout you win $9 or lose $10. To come out even over many trades you need:
break-even win rate = 1 ÷ (1 + payout)
- 95% payout → 1 ÷ 1.95 = 51.3%
- 90% payout → 52.6%
- 85% payout → 54.1%
- 80% payout → 55.6%
- 70% payout → 58.8%
The difference between 95% and 80% looks like "15% more profit". In win-rate terms it is more than four percentage points of accuracy — a huge amount on a 1-minute chart.
Number 2 — expected value per trade
Expected value tells you what one trade is worth on average:
EV = win rate × payout − (1 − win rate)
At a 55% win rate and 90% payout: 0.55 × 0.90 − 0.45 = +0.045, or +4.5 cents per dollar staked. At the same win rate and 80% payout: 0.55 × 0.80 − 0.45 = −0.01 — a losing strategy, with identical accuracy. Payout is not a bonus on top of your edge; it is part of your edge.
Number 3 — the account-level bonus
Bynix adds a payout bonus by account level — Bronze +1%, Silver +2%, Gold +3%, Platinum +5% — on every trade, capped at 98%. For a Platinum trader a 90% market pays 95%, which moves the break-even rate from 52.6% to 51.3%. Over a thousand trades that is the difference between a break-even year and a profitable one. The account levels guide explains how levels are earned.
A ready-made table
Win rate you need to break even, by payout:
- 98% → 50.5%
- 95% → 51.3%
- 92% → 52.1%
- 90% → 52.6%
- 88% → 53.2%
- 85% → 54.1%
- 80% → 55.6%
- 75% → 57.1%
- 70% → 58.8%
Write your real win rate from Trade history next to this table. Any market whose payout needs more accuracy than you have is a market to skip, however good the setup looks.
How to use payout when choosing what to trade
- Same setup, several markets? Take it on the market with the highest payout at that moment; crypto OTC pairs usually lead.
- Payout dropped on your favourite market? It happens as conditions change. Your edge just got smaller — reduce stake or wait.
- Comparing brokers? Compare the payout displayed on the same market and expiry, not the headline "up to" figure. See the broker comparison checklist.
- Bonus funds? They carry a turnover requirement, so treat the bonus as extra practice capital rather than extra edge.
Where the maths ends
A win rate is only meaningful over a sample — 50 trades at the very least, 200 to trust it. Track it per market and per expiry in Trade history, keep the combinations above break-even and stop trading the ones below. That is the entire strategy behind every strategy.
Practise the counting on the demo account: the payouts there are the same as on the real account, so the table applies from day one.